Furious Friday

Is social media at a tipping point?

Today we’re looking at the market environment for Facebook, Google, Twitter, YouTube etc… their costs are going to far outpace what their revenues will be. Are they on their way up, or on their way down?

  • EU copyright laws affecting business models
  • Proposal for online forums to be banned
  • The difference between a ‘platform’ and a ‘publisher’ and how the law treats each of those definitions

Facebook is down 30% – and have advised that revenues would continue to slow down and its costs rise.

  1. Market cap almost half of Australia’s GDP (1.2tr USD)
  2. Loss equals the total GDP of Kuwait – some $120.3 billion in 2017 last year
  3. Indeed, over the last three months alone insiders – including Zuckerberg – have sold off $3.8 billion worth of stock in the company.
  4. Earnings per share (EPS) actually were a little ahead of forecast at $1.74 versus $1.72 that had been projected. And, revenues were only a tad shy at $13.23 billion compared to the $13.36 billion that had been expected.
  5. Trend analysis – middle of a very wide and falling trend in the short term with a further fall within the trend is signalled.
    1. Stock is expected to fall -18.53% during the next 3 months and, with 90% probability hold a price between $120.68 and $156.81

 

Three risks for social platforms – FB, Twitter, YouTube (owned by Google)

EU Copyright changes – Article 11 (link tax) & 13 (meme ban)

  1. Copyright directive – potential memes banned and platforms will need to pay publishers to link to their websites
  2. The European Parliament has voted in favour of a controversial new copyright directive that could force tech giants to do much more to stop the spread of copyrighted material on their platforms.
    1. designed to update existing copyright laws for the internet age
  3. Directive on Copyright places more responsibility on websites such as YouTube, Facebook and Twitter to make sure that copyrighted materially isn’t being shared on their platforms.
    1. Until now, the onus has mostly been on the copyright holders to notify the platforms
  4. The article intends to get news aggregator sites, such as Google News, to pay publishers for using snippets of their articles on their platforms.
    1. Legislation: “may obtain fair and proportionate remuneration for the digital use of their press publications by information society service providers”

 

Nobody knows how these will work – The EU politicians voting on this haven’t even read it. They have their assistants read it and they tell them how to vote.

  1. The Directive does contain an exemption for “legitimate private and non-commercial use of press publications by individual users,”
    1. this is open to interpretation – someone with a huge following on social media, who posts adverts to that audience, a “private and non-commercial” entity
  2. Article 12a might stop anyone who isn’t the official organiser of a sports match from posting any videos or photos
    1. could put a stop to viral sports GIFs and might even stop people who attended matches from posting photos to social media
    2. all of this depends on how the directive is interpreted by member states when they make it into law

 

UK – Online Hate Bill

  1. Want to ban private chats and forums on FB and other social media sites
    1. All that it will do is make hate filled groups go underground and punish those who are part of funny cat meme groups
  2. Irony is that there is no public forum for their policies
    1. They are allowed to meet in private and make decisions that affect our lives

 

Platform vs Publisher

  1. Platforms are not responsible for content uploaded
    1. As Facebook does control and edit content, they run the risk of losing platform status – and can be sued for content
  2. Publishers are liable

Which Vanguard ETFs are best to diversify into?

Welcome to Finance and Fury, The Say What Wednesday Edition This week the question is from Dan I am 21 and have about 70k in a term deposit and 5k in VHY and VGS ETFs. I am wondering whether over a period of 20~50 years I would be better diversifying into VAE or VGE...

Are the risks from investments in structured products worth their potential returns?

Welcome to Finance and Fury, the Say What Wednesday edition. This week the question comes from Mina. “I would love to get your view on Structured products like the ones being offered by sequoia. Is the risk worth the return?” Great question – thanks Mina - this...

How is traditional asset diversification is getting harder in a world with increasingly correlated asset classes?

Welcome to Finance and Fury Traditional asset class allocation Diversification getting harder Diversification in a world where most asset classes are becoming correlated Diversification: what it is and isn’t Diversification across asset classes is one of the most...

Financial crash proof your share investments

Episode 11 Financial crash proof your share investments Welcome to Finance and Fury! Financial Crash proof your Share investments There is no way to control the rise and fall of investments but focusing on what you can control makes all the difference! Behaviours lead...

Don’t get tricked by a rebounding share market after a large loss

Welcome to Finance and Fury. Today is a share market update. Don’t get tricked by the rebound in prices. We will be looking a bit into the pattern recognitions in relation to markets The market is low compared to 3 months ago – if looking at 10 years in the future –...

The political battleground around you being able to control where your superannuation is invested.

Welcome to Finance and Fury, The Furious Friday Edition Today, the episode is delving a little deeper into superannuation I Work as a financial adviser – see a lot of changes to the legislation of superannuation since I joined the industry in 2011 – Today - Episode on...

The mother of all f**kups – Assumptions and their unintended consequences

Welcome to Finance and Fury, the Furious Friday edition Going to run through the last part of the Lucky country – and that is how we can best turn our luck around Through – innovation, freedom of choice, and ignoring narratives based on assumptions Going to skip...

What types of superannuation accounts allow you to control your investments?

Welcome to Finance and Fury, the Say What Wednesday edition. This week, the question comes from Andrew: "Last episode you mentioned super and a product that lets you invest in third party platforms. Would like to hear more about that." What is super? Most people think...

Why are some billionaires in favour of a more socialist state?

Welcome to Finance and Fury, the Furious Friday edition. This episode – be looking at the weird combination between socialism and billionaires that is emerging – especially focusing on why billionaires are increasingly becoming in favour of socialism? Or additional...

How to capitalise on the depressed global market and what investment strategies might be worth considering, if any?

Welcome to Finance and Fury, the Say What Wednesday edition. Question from John: “I have a question on how to capitalise on the depressed global market ie what investment strategies might be worth considering if any. I know it’s very much early days, but I’d be...

Pin It on Pinterest

Share This