Say What Wednesday

The Trump Economy

Today, we’re talking about the Trump economy, and the state of the US market.

Love him or hate him, America is doing better than ever – Trump just can’t stop winning when it comes to a lot of political and economic factors.

In his first 2 years in office President Donald J. Trump has achieved results domestically and internationally for the American people – he is the first President in my lifetime that seems to be putting his own countries interest first rather than signing a bunch of international pacts that look after other countries more so than his own.

  • The American economy is stronger, American workers are experiencing more opportunities, confidence is soaring, and business is booming.
  • Why is this going on? What we hear in the media is that America is going through so much trouble
  • President Trump has put the American people first and made government more accountable – he is one of the most transparent Presidents in America’s history.
  • I will focus on the economics in this episode, but with that said, Trump has turned ISIS into an afterthought, and de-escalated tension with North Korea
  • The share market may have corrected but it is still massively up.

 

The play by play:

America Economy is Stronger: American workers are better off thanks to President Trump’s ‘pro-growth’ agenda

The US Economy

Here’s the evidence

  • Share Market – Still Up 33% since Oct 2016 and the ASX only up 7.5% since then
  • GDP Growth – 4.2% – which has beaten all expectations
  • Nearly 3 million jobs have been created – 304k manufacturing, and 337k construction (Highest levels since 2008)
  • Unemployment rate has dropped to 3.7, the lowest rate in over 50 years.
    • Job openings have reached 7 million, the highest level recorded.
  • Gallup Polls – 67% of Americans believe now is a good time to find a quality job
    • Only under President Trump have more than 50% of Americans believed it is a good time to find a quality job since Gallup began asking the question 17 years ago.
  • Restored confidence in the American economy, with confidence among both consumers and businesses reaching historic highs.
    • Consumer confidence has reached a 17-year high
    • Manufacturers and small business confidence/optimism hit record highs
  • Energy production – Net energy exporter
    • Trump travelled the world to promote the sale and use of U.S. energy

How he do it?

  1. Work Force changes and taxation – Leading to confidence
  2. Job training and workforce development to empower workers to seize more opportunities, signing an Executive order to expand apprenticeship opportunities.
    • This is great for an economy – Everyone keeps saying that replacement of humans by technology is going to replace us – hearing that for hundreds of years – but, we adapt!
      • Do you think that a medieval serf, where 80+% of the population were farming based populations – think that a computer engineer, or pilot would be an occupation?
      • We are adaptable – why we are the #1 species
  3. President Trump signed historic tax cuts and Jobs Act into law, cutting taxes for American families and making American business more competitive.
    • Each American now gets more money in their account each week – Most Americans are now earning more due to the income tax cuts
    • The top corporate tax rate was lowered from 35 percent to 21 percent so American businesses could be more competitive. This has caused companies to bring back money into America.
    • President Trump has rolled back unnecessary job-killing regulations beyond expectations.
      • When you make it easier for business to operate – they do wonders for the economy
      • The free market can choose very efficiently – Someone gets sick from eating at a restaurant for example. In the modern age, someone has invented an app letting people know that it may not be the best restaurant to go to.
      • Businesses are incentivised to give the best service – or lose customers in the long run once loyalty runs out

In 2017, President Trump far exceeded his promise to eliminate regulations at a two-to-one ratio, issuing 22 deregulatory actions for every new regulatory action, saving $8.1 billion.

  • Fair Trade – lower regulations
    • Since taking office, President Trump has advanced free, fair, and reciprocal trade deals that protect American workers, ending decades of destructive trade policies.
      • Torn on this – Free trade is good, but not everyone wins
    • Days after taking office, the President withdrew the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations and agreement.
    • Made good on his campaign promise to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
    • Opened up the North American Free Trade Agreement for talks to better the deal for the U.S.
    • Worked to bring companies back to the U.S., and companies like Toyota, Mazda, Broadcom Limited, and Foxconn announced plans to open U.S. plants.
      • Trump wasn’t entirely wrong. Companies from developed countries that signed up to the deal, such as Japan and the United States, would have outsourced to developing countries that have low-cost labour and fewer labour laws, such as Vietnam. In which case, unemployment in developed countries could have risen.
  • Accountability and transparency – lower regulations
    • Accountability and Whistleblower Protection Act of 2017, improving processes for addressing misconduct
    • Government shouldn’t be clandestine – which has been the trouble in the US for a while now. They have never been too forthcoming with information.
    • Cleaning out the FBI and DOJ for individuals who allowed politicians to break the law
      • Likely chance that Military Tribunals coming in the next few months

Why this is all so important?

  1. Gets barriers to the free market out of the way – Increases incentive and transparency
    • Peoples’ behaviours change over time in relation to what incentives are around
  2. Gives confidence – Has a clear stable message – Strong leadership
    • If a country has a clear direction it goes well even in tough times
    • Example – War times, a uniting factor is the best thing for a country/culture
      • In WW2 the English were bonded – some even missed the war times, as back then they were all in it, bonded by their comradery, when they worked together for survival, helping one another
      • In Brisbane, Australia – In the floods people were really nice to each other, with strangers helping strangers
    • Hard to achieve in democracy – as there will always be tribalism. But unifying factors in countries are important
      • Has to come from what people want – having a good life and being free

Here’s the take away

  1. Regulations and taxation hand in hand lead to a society declining in economic power
  2. It has happened throughout history
    • Rome is a good example – Went away from a republic where there were many representatives, to an Empire with one dictator ruling them all, and it became a popularity contest.
  3. It is the cycle of all empires – we just need to realise the signs and ignore the noise
    • Always vote for freedom over free stuff
    • It is trading good stuff now for less freedom in the future
  4. It is best to focus on your individual freedom – Building wealth – Increasing your own ability to take care of yourself
    • Be wary of the trap of voting for economic instant gratification – Economic freedom is better
    • Instant gratification / Gain through handouts might feel good now, but reduces potential in the future
    • Working for what you own – nothing feels better. The first $1,000 I earned as a 14yo felt pretty good, especially at $8 an hour

 

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